For years, Niagara has carried a reputation, and we continue to hear this narrative:
An aging population.
A shrinking workforce.
A community losing young people faster than it can replace them.
But when you look at the data closely, a more nuanced and hopeful story is emerging.
Population change isn’t just about who is moving to other communities. It’s also about who is arriving, who is staying, and how the workforce is shifting in real time. And if you are engaged in workforce planning, economic development, community support and resources, or building strong workplaces, this story matters to you.
Let’s break it down.
Population Change in Niagara, 2024-25
Statistics Canada measures population change using four components. In Niagara, our most recent trends look like this:
- Natural change (births minus deaths): -1,005
- Net international migration: +5,849
- Net interprovincial migration (between provinces): -726
- Net intraprovincial migration (within Ontario): +6,399
Figure 1. Components of Population Change, Niagara, 2024-2025
Natural Change (births – deaths)
Between 2024-25 Niagara saw a decline in natural population change indicating more deaths than births. This isn’t unusual for communities with older populations. It does, however, mean that migration is the primary driver of population growth.
Figure 2. Births and Deaths, Niagara, 2024-2025
Net international migration
Net international migration is the sum of immigration and net non-permanent residents, minus emigration. Out of the 3,166 immigrants that arrived in 2024-2025, 653 (~21%) were aged 25-29 years old. Those immigrating to Niagara were mainly of the core working age group (25-34 years old), contributing to 36% of immigration in 2024-2025. This challenges the narrative that Niagara is only attracting retirees. In fact, many people choosing Niagara are young adults — individuals in the key years of building careers, starting families, and contributing to the labour market.
Figures 3-5. Immigration, Non-Permanent Residents and Emigration, Niagara, 2024-2025
Net Inter-provincial Migration: A Youth Outflow
Local net inter-provincial migration for 2024-25 was -726 which means more people left Niagara to move to other provinces than moved to Niagara from other provinces. Those leaving for other provinces were primarily individuals aged 20-24. This age group often includes post-secondary students and early-career workers seeking education, training, or new opportunities elsewhere. Some outflow is normal — young adults are mobile. The key question is whether they return.
Figure 6. Net Interprovincial Migration, Niagara, 2024-2025
Intraprovincial Migration: Ontario Is Moving to Niagara
Here’s where the story shifts. Niagara saw a net intraprovincial migration of +6,399.
That means more people moved to Niagara from elsewhere in Ontario, than left Niagara for other Ontario communities. And once again, the strongest driver? Individuals aged 25–34.
This aligns with broader housing and lifestyle shifts we’ve seen across Ontario in recent years. People are increasingly looking for:
- More affordable housing
- Work-life balance
- Community-oriented living
- Access to remote or hybrid work
Niagara is increasingly part of that conversation.
Between 2015 and 2025, we see a sustained increase in people relocating to Niagara from other parts of Ontario, primarily among youth (15–24) and core working-age adults (25–54).
Figure 7. Net Intraprovincial Migration, Niagara, 2024-2025
Figure 8. Net Intraprovincial Migration, Niagara, 2015-2025
Median Age: A Turning Point
If Niagara were only aging, we would expect the median age to continue rising. But in 2025, Niagara’s median age sits at 42.7 years. The last time the median age was this low? 2009 — at 42.8.
That means we are seeing a measurable shift toward a younger population profile.
Is Niagara suddenly a young city? No.
But is the “rapidly aging” narrative outdated? Increasingly, yes.
Figure 9. Median Age, Niagara, 2001-2025
Opportunities for Growth
The data shows us that more young people are moving to Niagara, from other countries and from within Canada. With these increases, there are opportunities for Niagara:
| 1. Immigration is Driving Growth As most of Niagara’s population growth is driven by immigration, this means workforce strategy must prioritize: – Newcomer employment pathways – Credential recognition – Language training – Employer readiness | 2. Attracting and Retaining Ontario residents are choosing Niagara. But attraction without retention doesn’t create long-term economic stability. We need to ensure: – Strong career ladders & growth opportunities – Competitive wages – Affordable housing options – Access to transportation and childcare – Workplace wellbeing |
| 3. Employers have Opportunities Many of the individuals moving to Niagara are in their core working years. For employers facing labour shortages, this presents a clear opportunity: – Expand recruitment strategies – Invest in inclusive hiring practices – Build partnerships with settlement and community organizations – Strengthen onboarding supports | 4. Aligning our Systems with the Growth Population growth affects more than just jobs. It influences: Housing markets Healthcare access Education and training capacity Infrastructure Social services |
A growing population brings energy and opportunity — but also planning responsibilities. This is where collaboration becomes essential.
The Bigger Picture: Dispelling the Myth
It’s easy to rely on outdated narratives.
Niagara is aging.
Young people are leaving.
Growth is stagnant.
The data tells a more dynamic story.
Yes, we are experiencing negative natural increase.
Yes, some youth leave for other provinces.
But we are also:
- Attracting thousands of newcomers
- Welcoming young working-age adults
- Seeing sustained intraprovincial migration
- Experiencing a declining median age
Niagara isn’t static. It’s shifting. And when you zoom out, you see something important:
Niagara’s workforce future is being shaped right now by migration.
Data Sources
Tables 1-8: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0153-01 Components of population change by census division, 2021 boundaries. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015301
Table 9: Statistics Canada. Table 17-10-0152-01 Population estimates, July 1, by census division, 2021 boundaries. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015201